The monumental Executive Order announced on May 12 is sending a chill through the pharmaceutical industry. President Trump is proposing to significantly lower drug prices in the U.S. by implementing a most favored nation pricing model. In essence, this means that for drugs paid for by the government, the price would be set at the lowest rate charged by any developed country.
There’s a lot to unpack here.
First, this doesn’t apply to all drugs—only those covered under Medicare and Medicaid. Most drugs that patients pick up at a retail pharmacy are not impacted. Also worth noting: legal challenges are expected.
Even if drug profits dip, DTC advertising is not the obvious place to cut. More importantly, DTC delivers a solid ROI—and that’s not going to change.
The rationale from the administration? Trump argues there’s no justification for Americans to pay more for prescriptions than people in Europe, Canada, or other developed nations. According to him, we’re subsidizing the world’s pharmaceutical innovation by footing the entire R&D bill, while foreign countries enjoy cheaper prices due to imposed price controls. This Executive Order aims to put pressure on those countries to contribute more—and Trump intends to tie this issue into future trade negotiations.
Even though the order currently targets only a subset of drugs, the broader industry fear is that it sets the stage for sweeping price controls. Could Congress eventually mandate that all branded drugs follow a most favored nation pricing strategy? That would have massive repercussions—crushing drug company margins and threatening the long-term viability of R&D pipelines.
Faced with this possibility, some pharmaceutical companies may even choose to cut off sales to lower-paying countries. That would be a strategic move to drive up international pricing and allow more equitable pricing for American consumers.
So—will this shake up affect DTC investment?
In my view, probably not. Even if drug profits dip, DTC advertising is not the obvious place to cut. Drugmakers still need to drive demand, especially in a competitive landscape. While companies might scale back some expenses, the $8 billion spent annually on direct-to-consumer advertising is modest compared to total promotional budgets and operational costs. More importantly, DTC delivers a solid ROI—and that’s not going to change.
What this Executive Order does indicate, however, is that the pharmaceutical industry is clearly in the crosshairs. This isn’t your traditional business-friendly Republican approach. Trump and Bernie Sanders may not agree on much, but when it comes to populist pressure on drug pricing, they’re surprisingly aligned.
While DTC advertising may escape immediate scrutiny, this move shows Trump is willing to break from the norm. Is a DTC ban still on the table? I’d say not right now—but let’s not be naïve. The populist momentum is real, and DTC marketers should stay alert, committed to responsible and effective advertising.