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January 6, 2016 0

Judging by the first three quarters spending numbers from Nielsen, DTC should continue to grow in 2015 and 2016 versus the strong 2014 showing. Last year was the strongest spending in five years. DTC will probably grow more modestly in 2015 off a much higher base of $4.5 billion in 2014. DTC grew to $3.8 in 2013 from a disastrous $3.5 in 2012.

DTC spending could return to above the $5 billion level in 2016. The golden years were 2006 and 2007 with spending of $5.4 and $5.3 respectively. The financial crisis of 2008 and numerous patent expirations started a steep decline from 2009 through 2012. In fact, in 2012, some critics were predicting that DTC was in a long term decline as a promotional tactic.

Bob Ehrlich
“DTC should continue to grow…”
-Bob Ehrlich

What is interesting is to see television remain the dominant medium despite media gurus predicting its demise each year. I recognize the drug industry has an older demographic and that other industries are using television less than in the past. For drugs, however, television continues to take over 60% of the ad budget. There is no reason to think this proportion will change significantly in the next few years.

We know other targeted media are doing well based on other sources. Point of Care is exploding and estimated to be about $500 million, but is not measured by Nielsen. Internet is growing as well but is still a small slice of the pie at about 2% of spending. The world of DTC as media has not changed much over the last decade. Media gurus love to talk about the end of television, but drug marketers are still convinced it is where they should allocate 60-70% of their budget.

In fact we are now seeing television used for drugs that never would have considered it a few years ago. Highly targeted disease states are now using television. Cancer, Hepatitis, and Insomnia for the blind, are just a few now using television. High cost drugs like Opdivo for lung cancer recognize that the payback is there using a broad awareness medium.

With rising DTC spending comes renewed criticism that DTC is causing high consumer prices and over use. Critics were happiest when they though DTC would die a slow death. Now that it is growing again, the spending data will be used as political ammunition. The DTC Industry needs to keep close watch on the calls for a ban, or severe restrictions. The spending numbers show drug makers know using DTC has become critical to create a blockbuster drug. It is nice to see DTC recognized by drug marketers as a must do component of a large drug launch. While DTC may not be appropriate for all branded drugs, it certainly is right for most.

Those of us involved in DTC need a thick skin to deal with constant criticism from politicians, consumerists, physicians, news media, and insurance payers. At least the rising spending makes it easier to take and that uptrend should continue.

Bob Ehrlich


January 5, 2016 0

Who is Stuart Elliott and why should we care what he thinks? Let me back up a bit. Stuart Elliott was the advertising reporter for the New York Times for over 20 years. He left in 2014 to write for Media Village.com. In a column written on 12/9 Mr. Elliott said he no longer supports DTC. The piece is titled “ Madison Avenue Has Overdosed on Prescription Drug Ads.

Mr. Elliott says he was a long time supporter of DTC ads. He now thinks they should be reconsidered. He cites the American Medical Association( AMA) call for a ban as a major reason. He also uses the criticism on high drug prices as a reason to end advertising. He thinks ending DTC may help the image of drug companies.

Bob Ehrlich
“The facts are against…Mr. Elliott’s anti-DTC argument.”
-Bob Ehrlich

Whenever a long time DTC supporter changes positions it is significant and concerning. As a veteran advertising reporter Mr. Elliott certainly has the experience to weigh in credibly on DTC. I must, however, take issue with his column. Clearly I have my biases toward DTC, as the CEO of a company doing DTC conferences. That bias being revealed I think the facts support the drug industry in not reconsidering use of DTC.

All advertising for profit making companies is designed to increase sales. The fact that DTC does increase sales is apparently the reason critics want it banned. AMA does not like that patients ask for branded drugs potentially increasing use of higher cost drugs over cheaper alternatives. While DTC may lead to patient initiated discussion, I am not apologetic to doctors that patients want to be involved in drug selection. DTC advertising creates inquiries and discussion but doctors have the ultimate power what is prescribed.

Second, there is no basis to think ending DTC will improve the drug industry image. That position seems to based on the faulty assumption that advertising raises prices and takes money away from R&D. The reported $5 billion in DTC spending is really about 3.5 billion in actual spending because drug companies pay less than the reported estimates. That 3.5 billion is just a bit over 1% of drug revenue, not much of a price decrease if it was all used to provide price support . To think cutting all DTC would reduce consumer prices is just not true. If that DTC spending was banned sales would drop by about 10 billion, if we assume a 2 to 1 ROI on current DTC spending. Why would drug companies cut prices if they are losing revenue?

Consumer advocates and politicians complained about drug company pricing prior to DTC. They complained about patent life being too long before DTC. They complained about inadequate clinical studies before DTC. They complained about drug sales forces before DTC. Drug companies have been characterized negatively for decades, long before DTC. Unless drug companies charge generic prices for their branded drugs and never cause a drug related death, there will be critics.

Mr. Elliott says an outright ban might be phased in and maybe we should consider a two year moratorium on DTC ads for new products. Most companies already wait at least a year before they run ads. I am sure considering an extra year is a subject for reasonable discussion between industry and regulators.

What is interesting in this flip flop position is the failure to mention free speech. Mr. Elliott does not discuss why he feels a lawful product should be denied commercial free speech. His rationale that DTC creates image problems and that the AMA is against it, does not address free speech protection. I ask him where he draws the line? Does he think other industries with image problems should stop advertising? There are many advertised products such as cigarettes, alcohol, video games, birth control, and fast food that have numerous critics.

So, Mr. Elliott, while I understand the AMA reasons for being against DTC, I would hope you would investigate whether ending it would actually lower prices or raise the drug industry image. I think the facts are against either of Mr. Elliott’s anti-DTC argument.

Bob Ehrlich


December 4, 2015 0

The recent announcement by the American Medical Association(AMA) calling for a ban on DTC ads has created a media avalanche of coverage. Google “AMA DTC ban” and you get numerous articles covering the issue. Many are from newspapers with letters/op-eds supporting the ban of DTC. The prestigious New York Timesran an editorial on November 27 titled Turn the Volume Down on Drug Ads. The editorial does not call for an outright ban, recognizing free speech issues might be a barrier. It does say perhaps the public should fund alternate information on effectiveness to offer consumers alternatives to branded drugs. They also float the idea of banning DTC for the first two years of a drug. They end the editorial saying consumers need to be skeptical what they read and hear from drug companies.

Bob Ehrlich
“We….need to take these threats very seriously.”
-Bob Ehrlich

The AMA call for a ban coincided with a recently released Kaiser Foundation study saying consumers wanted more DTC restrictions with 89% calling for prior FDA review. This study also received a lot of general media coverage.

Having reviewed the reaction to the AMA call for a ban, I am more nervous about new restrictions on DTC. A full ban is likely unconstitutional on first amendment grounds. The courts do not favor restrictions on commercial speech. That does not mean DTC cannot be further regulated. The FDA has broad authority to oversee promotion of drugs. Could they make advertising more burdensome for drug companies? If the FDA believes DTC is no longer in the public interest they could add more onerous fair balance or risk requirements. They could make it hard to run a DTC ad in 60 seconds forcing longer more expensive ad lengths.

The advertising lobby is of course responding to the threat. Numerous trade organizations take this latest anti-DTC wave seriously. No media company wants to have to replace drug ads which have become a major revenue source. The advertising lobby is telling Congress how many jobs would be lost if drug companies stopped consumer advertising. The New York Timeseditorial board may support restricting DTC but the publisher has to like the ad revenue.

We, as DTC professionals, need to take these threats very seriously. Remember, you as an individual have lots of influence with your member of Congress. I would be reminding them of the benefits of advertising to the consumer. Banning information is impractical in our world of easy access to the Internet. Consumers want to know what drugs are available and DTC helps educate them. Consumers do not need protection from FDA vetted information on DTC ads.

The New York Timesshould have more faith in consumers. Americans are skeptical of drug ads and use them as only one source of drug information. Product information from drug companies, their competitors, insurers, medical writers, consumer watchdogs, bloggers, patients and government researchers is available for both consumers and doctors to evaluate before a drug is prescribed.

As a society, the best protection for consumers is easy access to diverse sources of product information. Banning that information may make the AMA happy, but what else will they want banned next? Would they prefer no ads for alcohol, tobacco, fast food, sugared beverages, processed foods, chips, and other products potentially harmful to our health? Slippery slopes can be dangerous and the advertising industry is aware of the risks of a DTC ban.

Bob Ehrlich


November 23, 2015 0
Bob Ehrlich
“The AMA wants to control the flow of drug information…” -Bob Ehrlich

The AMA announced through a statement on 11/17 that they just voted to support a ban on DTC advertising. They cited the causes as over-prescribing of more expensive treatments and rising prescription prices. The AMA is being hypocritical since doctors advertise directly to consumers. Insurance companies advertise health coverage to consumers. Labs and test centers advertise. Hospitals advertise. Dentists advertise.

AMA is not calling to ban ads for any of these health care services, just drugs. AMA is essentially saying consumers do not need the information provided in DTC ads because the doctor knows best. Consumers should remain uninformed of new drug options because they may ask for them and force compliant doctors to prescribe something they prefer not to. It seems they think their members have no ability to say no to an inappropriate consumer request.

The AMA wants to control the flow of drug information because it has this outdated notion that consumers are better off knowing less. DTC is advertised information, clearly done to spur drug demand. It is but one source of information for consumers. The savvy consumer knows it is advertising and is skeptical of the claims made. They are information hungry and may use DTC as a starting point to search out reviews of the advertised drug as well as alternatives.

The days of the all knowing doctor who only has patient best interest in mind are over. Doctors are human, sometimes not up to date on drugs, and they are busy. Sometimes they take the easy route and prescribe what they are used to writing. DTC forces doctors to be aware of what is advertised. If they have to answer patient inquiries on DTC advertised drugs then so be it and welcome to the information age.

Today we have competing financial interests in the health care industry. Payers want to pay less for drugs, consumers want the best medications, and doctors get caught in the squeeze between insurers and patients. Government is also involved in trying to reduce cost and would also prefer to keep patients out of the drug selection discussion.

AMA can call for whatever action they like but advertising is free speech. After almost 20 years of seeing DTC broadcast ads, you think they would have by now learned to deal with patients asking about drug brands. DTC will not be banned and AMA would help consumers more by doing studies on how doctor and patient can more effectively select and properly take drugs. Calling for a ban is easy to do but not very helpful for consumers. Hilary and Bernie will applaud, and use the AMA call for a ban as support for their anti-drug company rhetoric.

While DTC will not realistically face an outright ban, drug companies, advertising agencies, and media sellers need to be aware that there is a lot that can happen short of a ban. FDA can make advertising execution more onerous through more stringent risk and fair balance requirements, and Congress can use tax policy to restrict advertising deductibility. Everyone in the DTC space should be politically active, contact their Congressmen to oppose DTC restrictions, and understand Hilary is dead serious in her dislike for drug companies. There is very little political downside bashing drug companies so expect them to be a featured villain in the 2016 election soap opera.

Bob Ehrlich


November 16, 2015 1
Bob Ehrlich
“Media reporting on DTC is heavily biased negatively…” -Bob Ehrlich

I don’t mean to sound paranoid but it seems to me that media reporting on DTC is heavily biased negatively. Maybe it reflects the media’s general anti-big business attitude. I recently came across a Los Angeles Times article on DTC, focused on risk communication. It is titled “Direct-to-consumer marketing is a scandal, can the FDA fix it?” The article from 9/18/15 is about how drug ads confuse consumers with medical language and overstate benefits through its pretty visual scenes.

The FDA has actively regulated DTC since its inception and continues to oversee what the ads say. They ensure fair balance and as any drug marketer knows, FDA reviewers are not rubber stamps for drug makers. This article is not very different from most critiques of DTC. The writer calls for more easily understood consumer language. Most drug companies are already doing that in broadcast and print. No drug maker is trying to obscure risks through some hidden plot to use medical terms.

My concern on how the media writes about DTC is when they use terms like scandal in the headline. This article never said what the scandal really is about. The writer presented no quantitative evidence of consumers being deceived by drug ads except citing studies that consumers do not fully understand side effects in ads. Scandal is a strong word that should be used judiciously. While it is certainly true drug ads are meant to sell products, these ads are rigorously reviewed by FDA for accuracy. Ads are not meant to be the only information on a drug the consumer sees. The consumer has easy access to many views on a drug’s efficacy and risk profile.

Consumers may not fully understand every warning or risk in an ad. They can look up more on the Internet and ask their doctor. This reporter makes DTC ads out to be some nefarious strategy to obscure risk. Yet what other advertising category is regulated such that half their ad contains warning and risk information. I admit there are legitimate concerns that DTC ads can be confusing. Drug makers and FDA want consumers to understand the ads. Most print ads now use a consumer friendly fact box style of risk information. Television ads are regulated to ensure risk communication is read at the same pace as benefits. FDA has done and is doing numerous studies to ensure ads are understood and in balance.

While scandal as a headline gets attention, the media needs to back it up with proof. Certainly the Los Angeles Times is happy to accept drug ads as a revenue source. Maybe they should refuse such “scandalous” ads in an effort to protect their readers. Somehow I doubt they would because DTC ads help their bottom line.

Bob Ehrlich, Chairman
DTC Perspectives, Inc.

Bob Ehrlich


November 6, 2015 0
Bob Ehrlich
“89% want drugs ads to be approved by FDA…” -Bob Ehrlich

The Kaiser Family Foundation recently asked consumers about DTC advertising and drug affordability in a recent poll. There is some good news and bad news for drug advertisers in the poll. The good news is a 51% majority of Americans say DTC advertising is a good thing. While that is not an overwhelming mandate in support of DTC, it is not a bad number.

The concerning poll data was that 89% want drug ads to be approved by FDA before they air. The public has this false perception that drug ads are not well regulated by FDA. While FDA does not by statute pre-clear ads, almost all drug companies voluntarily submit ads before they air to get FDA comments. The drug companies must submit ads to FDA once they air but few will wait that long. No drug company wants to risk a punitive action by airing a violative ad because they face running corrective ads. The public can rest assured that FDA for all practical purposes does pre-review ads.

What is also concerning is that 57% say drug companies spend too much on advertising to consumers. They probably believe that drug companies raise prices to fund ads. As I have written before drug ad spending is only about 2% of revenue. Ending DTC would not cause drug companies to cut prices. In fact by lowering demand, a cut in advertising would probably cause drug companies to raise prices to increase revenue. This idea that drug ads raise prices is continually fueled by ignorant politicians who conveniently rail against drug marketing.

Since Americans think drug prices are too high anything that can cast marketing as the cause is a political winner. The poll said 63% of Americans want government action to lower drug prices. Of course we all want lower drug prices. That would be nice as would lower prices for a lot of things. Most Americans also want cures for disease and to be protected against future pandemics. While explaining the link between drug research and drug prices is complex, I am sure we as an industry could do a better job making the case.

While the poll found nothing shocking, the views of Americans on drug pricing and advertising guarantee it is a juicy election issue. That will keep drug company and advertising industry lobbyists busy fighting against threats of price controls and marketing bans. The drug industry does not deserve to be vilified but I am afraid that will be the case for a long time. All we can do is try to present the facts fairly.

Bob Ehrlich


October 30, 2015 0
Bob Ehrlich
“We are entering the prime of the DTC era..”
-Bob Ehrlich

Yes, DTC is 30 years old, not 18 as some say, thinking it started in 1997 after FDA liberalized television regulations. The FDA started to allow it in 1985 after lifting the moratorium on doing prescription drug ads. DTC spending was at a trickle in the late 1980’s and started to take off with a print boom in the early 1990’s.

In 1991 spending was only $55 million but steadily grew through 1996 to $595 million. Most was in print but some branded television reminder ads also started to appear. The FDA recognized the folly of allowing drug companies to state the brand name on television without allowing the indication. Consumers saw television ads screaming Claritin, Claritin, Claritin without mentioning what it was intended to treat. Drug companies used print to tell what it was for, and TV reminders became the Hamburger Helper of brand name awareness to supplement the full story told in print.

In 1997, FDA issued a guidance allowing drug companies to do branded with indication television without being forced to scroll the whole package insert. This led to the feasibility of the 60 second ad we know and love today. The spending floodgates opened rising steadily each year to reach over $5 billion in 2006.

Then the spending started declining steadily to the mid $3 billion level by 2013 largely due to big brands going off patent and a slow down of new drug launches. Some industry experts felt DTC could be on the outs. Some drug company executives spoke out against it saying it has caused image issues, and DTC was threatened with moratoriums, tax penalties, mandatory pre-clearance. For the past three years we have seen a strong rebound driven by many new brands heavily using DTC. We could see $5 billion again very soon.

So why does a 30 year old industry still feel so unsettled? What still needs to be learned? Are we now all experts or still relative novices? DTC, unfortunately, will always be unsettled. This is because many influential people in government, medicine, consumer watchdog groups, the media and insurance dislike it. The arguments are many and we all know them. DTC overstates benefits, it raises prices, takes money from R&D, causes doctors to waste time explaining drugs seen on ads, and creates demand for over treatment.

Given the drug companies are on the presumptive Democratic nominee’s enemies list, DTC will be unsettled for the foreseeable future. Thirty years of advertising has not mellowed the critics. Threats to DTC will remain a fact of life from outright bans, moratoriums on new drug advertising, forced reporting of ad expenditures versus research, taxes on advertising, restrictive FDA policy, public pressure and a media quick to vilify drug companies.

Is there now a marketing maturity through accepted principles and understanding how best to do DTC advertising? I would say we have a come along way since the early 1990’s but still have a ways to go to reach maturity. Health care is such a dynamic industry and changing in consumer behavior and technology faster than we can absorb. We all know how social media exploded while FDA was puzzled how to regulate 2015 media with 1970’s regulations. We have gotten great experience making television and print ads, are getting good at point of care media, and have volumes of good ROI data. Our DTC marketers are no longer pulled from the detail forces of drug companies, and most have solid consumer advertising backgrounds.

The next five years will create massive opportunities for DTC marketers. We have the multicultural explosion still barely recognized in DTC advertising. We have Internet spending lagging other industries but has become the main source of health information. We have consumers much more involved in how to spend their increasingly higher health care co-pays. We have a government adding millions of people to health care insurance. We have a shortage of doctors to see patients, getting less time with each patient meaning they need more help explaining treatment options to patients.

We also have a technology explosion in health records, health trackers, and other fitness wearables. We are seeing the start of remote medicine, allowing diagnosis and treatment online. We see an explosion of retail medicine through mini-clinics. We can get vaccines at our supermarkets. The consumer expects medicine to be convenient and reasonably priced.

DTC will be a part of all these trends and although television will still be a big part of most media plans, new approaches will be evaluated, tested and added to DTC media. At thirty, we can say we are entering the prime of the DTC era and our experts will need to stay busy making sense of the many forces shaping consumer advertising.

A few years ago some in our industry, the media, and in medicine were predicting the death of DTC. Instead it has resumed a strong growth trend and we have escaped a premature death. DTC works well and drug makers recognize it. There is no reason to think DTC will not celebrate 40, 50, and beyond. I am at 20 years in DTC and look forward to many more.

Bob Ehrlich


October 23, 2015 1
Bob Ehrlich
“The industry needs to be better prepared to defend premium pricing…”
-Bob Ehrlich

Recently Opdivo from Bristol-Myers started television advertising for its advanced stage lung cancer indication. What Opdivo does is work with the immune system to help fight the lung cancer. Clinical studies show survival versus chemo of 9.2 months vs. 6 months among half the patients taking it.

The ad, which is on the Opdivo web site, says “it’s not every day something this big comes along.” This voiceover is followed by an image on a skyscraper saying “a chance to live longer.” The ad continues with supers imposed on other buildings on living longer.

The cost of Opdivo is quite high at over $100k a year. The survival benefit is clinically significant. Survival, however, is measured in months not years. The ad tells the survival benefit with a super. So we have a drug with a significant benefit and a very high cost to the insurer. While the patient and their families certainly want the extra months of survival, the insurance companies are going to be reluctant to pay that much for those few extra months.

The ad will be highly effective in getting patients to ask their doctor about Opdivo. Insurance companies and government critics will surely hate this ad because it increases demand and it costs the payers a lot. I can hear Bernie and Hilary shriek with indignation that patients are given hope by the ad, only to be turned down by insurers over the high cost.

The use of biologics is growing and many genomic cures are on the horizon. The recently launched Hep C drugs Solvadi and Harvoni cure this terrible life threatening disease. They cost about $80k for a course of therapy and have created the same angst among payers. Both drugs used DTC effectively in raising consumer awareness.

The use of DTC for drugs costing tens of thousands a year is rising. The backlash over price will make DTC for these drugs a target for legislative and payer critics. Drug companies need to be ready for the outrage. Consumers really do not know from drug ads what the cost will be for a new treatment. Advertised drugs have widely varied costs per pill or dose from a few dollars a pill for cholesterol drugs to a thousand a pill for Hep C. The commercials do not address price and consumers face potential sticker shock.

Most consumers have an idea what that new car, new TV, or new box of detergent will cost. Drugs are somewhat unique in that pricing is opaque. Watching the Opdivo ad gives no clue the drug is 100 times more costly than a cholesterol drug. Drug companies have price supports through compassionate use programs for the poor, but those are not used broadly. Insurers hate these DTC ads because it puts pressure on them from consumers to cover life extending drugs. Once consumers complain, legislators enter to cajole insurers to cover the drug.

Opdivo and other cancer drugs have every right to advertise. What they offer is life altering. They should, however, expect legislative and consumer pushback over advertising a benefit that is expensive. While many patients will get the drug covered, many will not. The lack of consumer price information is an important strategic issue in my opinion and unique within the drug industry. The industry needs to be better prepared to defend premium pricing and explain to consumers why some drugs cost thousands a month. DTC for those drugs will motivate price critics to scream for price controls and DTC bans.

Bob Ehrlich


October 16, 2015 0
Bob Ehrlich
“Engagement is changing beyond..awareness advertising…”
-Bob Ehrlich

With rising DTC expenditures it is clear all media segments have new opportunities for a piece of a larger pie. I have always been media agnostic in my job as advisor, publisher, conference organizer and writer of DTC columns. I know all media has its place in the marketing plan. Traditional media such as television, magazines, radio, and newspapers are still critical to drug advertising success.

One area, though, seems to be on the verge of exploding in use and should fuel growth in DTC spending. That area is reaching the consumer through their physician’s office, pharmacy, clinic, hospital, or remotely through smart phones or customized health tracking devices.

Most consumers think most about their drug when it is being prescribed, filled, or first used. Engaging patients through education at all of these points is critical for success. Engagement is changing beyond just awareness advertising at these points. While awareness advertising in physician offices or pharmacies is critical, new technologies are allowing more more robust interactions between physician, pharmacist and patient.

Drug companies are working to understand how technology can be used to help doctors and pharmacists educate patients. Of course drug companies are most interested in those professionals writing more of their drug. The two biggest technologies that will affect drug company marketing are electronic health records (EHR) and mobile device health apps.

While EHR is being rapidly expanded and not yet widely used as an advertising medium, over time drug companies will see major opportunities to partner with EHR companies. Doctors want to provide clear, concise benefit and risk information to their patients. Piggybacking on the EHR system with good drug information will be key in the future. Doctors will be using push newsletters, emails, texts, robo-calls more in the future. Drug companies will be involved in underwriting these efforts especially as it relates to persistency.

Mobile consultation and diagnosis through wearable trackers will be common place in the near future. People with diabetes, high blood pressure, heart conditions, and other illnesses can be monitored real time by their health providers. Imagine the possibilities for drug company partnerships in helping doctors monitor patients. Ensuring proper adherence to a prescribed medication is good for the provider, patient, and drug maker.

There is still enormous potential for growth in awareness advertising at traditional point of care locations. More offices are joining these networks and more exam and waiting rooms are being added. I expect more consolidation between media suppliers so they have a broader reach. Drug marketers and their agencies want the ability to reach desired specialties without dealing with fragmented buying. The growth of retail medicine through mini clinics is also offering new locations for patient education media.

From what I hear from the media companies in the point of care space sales are doing very well. What these media companies need to do is make it easier for drug marketers to buy in scale, track ROI, and learn how to work in concert with the providers to engage patients beyond awareness advertising.

Bob Ehrlich


October 9, 2015 0
Bob Ehrlich
“DTC should survive no matter who wins the election…”
-Bob Ehrlich

I am concerned. DTC is under attack again by politicians and anti-drug company activists. While an outright ban is highly unlikely because of first amendment protections, it is possible to regulate DTC more and/or use tax policy to restrict its use.

The FDA, under a Clinton or Sanders presidency, would likely be told to do what it can to make advertising more difficult. That 1997 guidance allowing television to be done in 60 seconds was a liberalization of the interpretation of the rules. Does FDA have the authority to go back to the pre-1997 interpretation that required a full scroll of the package insert? Does free speech make that return to the restrictive old days unconstitutional?

While I would expect President Clinton or Sanders to try to ban DTC through FDA, I doubt the courts would allow it. Clinton and Sanders can alternatively ask FDA impose guidances to make advertising more difficult under the guise that consumers are overstating advertised drug effectiveness. They could then require more discussion of non-drug alternatives or increased discussion of comparative effectiveness to non-branded drugs.

Tax policy is a real threat by making drug ads a non-deductible expense. Of course, such a move would also restrict commercial speech as it would only apply to the drug industry. Courts have a dim view of government restriction of commercial speech. I doubt the advertising lobby would lose such a fight. You never know, however, until a law is enacted and tested in the courts.

Another threat to DTC may be the industry itself surrendering to pressure. Some drug executives may decide they do not want to deal with the critics any longer and just stop using DTC. They can decide to use other less public means of promotion. Of course it might be hard to stop DTC because it works so well for many brands. Drug executives have seen many brands succeed because of widespread awareness ads. Drug CEO’s may, however, surrender DTC in exchange for no Medicare price negotiation, no foreign drug imports, or patent life extensions. Most CEO’s are not consumer marketers and have no inherent love of consumer advertising.

My net is DTC should survive no matter who wins the election. It may, however, be faced with an FDA pressured to make DTC harder to execute. That could mean more onerous rules and more delays in approval. It could also mean more “voluntary” moratoria on advertising new drugs as a condition of approval. DTC spending continues to recover, and 2015 could be $5 billion again and higher spending is always erroneously blamed by critics for causing rising drug prices.

I urge my drug marketing colleagues and their agencies to take threats to DTC very seriously. Drug companies are easy targets and Congress is known for taking the easy path. Finding a way to punish branded drug companies by restricting advertising would be politically popular. Combine a pliant Congress with President Bernie or Hilary and watch DTC be placed on the endangered species list.

Anyone involved in DTC should make sure their representatives in Congress hear why restricting DTC advertising is a bad idea. The total spent on drug advertising is only about 1.5-2% of drug sales in the United States. That money, if no longer used for DTC, would not lower drug prices, despite the myth that drug companies price high to recover their DTC investment. Sales would in fact be lower if DTC were banned, and that would lead to cuts in research, not increases.

Bob Ehrlich